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Fed’s Waller: Interest Rates to Remain Steady

November 30th, 2023 by tisner


Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller signaled confidence in the slowing economy, saying inflation is slowly moving in the right direction.

WASHINGTON – A key Federal Reserve official raised the possibility Tuesday that the Fed could decide to cut its benchmark interest rate as early as spring if inflation keeps declining steadily.

The official, Christopher Waller, a member of the Fed’s Board of Governors, cautioned that inflation is still too high and that it’s not yet certain if a recent slowdown in price increases can be sustained. But he sounded the most optimistic notes of any Fed official since the central bank launched its aggressive streak of rate hikes in March 2022, and he signaled that the central bank is likely done raising rates.

Waller is regarded as a relatively “hawkish” official, meaning that he typically favors higher rates to combat inflation rather than low rates to boost job growth. But he has also become somewhat of a bellwether for the Fed’s overall rate-setting committee.

f inflation continues to cool “for several more months – I don’t know how long that might be – three months, four months, five months – that we feel confident that inflation is really down and, on its way, you could then start lowering the policy rate just because inflation is lower,” Waller said in remarks at the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank. “It has nothing to do with trying to save the economy or recession.”

Fed officials have previously suggested that eventually, cooling inflation would lead the Fed to cut rates. That’s because, adjusted for inflation, the central bank’s benchmark rate effectively rises as inflation falls.

And because the Fed’s key rate affects rates on consumer and business loans, like mortgages and credit cards, it becomes more of a drag on the economy. That’s why as inflation slows, the Fed could reduce its benchmark rate just to keep its inflation-adjusted level stationary.

Still, Waller’s remarks were a more explicit suggestion that such a scenario could occur as early as spring. Waller also said he thought the Fed’s short-term rate, which is at 5.4%, the highest in 22 years, is likely high enough to keep inflation headed down to the central bank’s 2% target.

“I am increasingly confident,” he said, that the Fed’s interest rate policies are “currently well-positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2%,” Waller said.

Waller’s remarks Tuesday suggested that the Fed’s outlook for interest rates may have decisively shifted in the past few months. In September, the Fed’s policymakers had signaled that they expected to raise their key short-term rate once more this year. At their most recent meeting, which ended Nov. 1, they kept the rate unchanged. Now, with signs that inflation is cooling, the officials are considered virtually certain to keep rates steady again at their final meeting of the year, Dec. 12-13.

Waller’s remarks follow Chair Jerome Powell’s more cautious comments earlier this month, when Powell said “we are not confident” that the Fed’s key short-term interest rate was high enough to fully defeat inflation. The Fed has raised its rate 11 times in the past year and a half.

Inflation, measured year over year, has plunged from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022 to 3.2% in October. Waller said October’s inflation report, which showed prices were flat from September to October, “was what I want to see.”

In a speech in October, Waller noted that inflation had cooled rapidly even as the economy continued to grow at a healthy pace. “Something’s got to give,” he said, meaning that either the economy would have to slow or inflation might re-accelerate.

“I am encouraged by what we have learned in the past few weeks – something appears to be giving, and it’s the pace of the economy,” he said Tuesday.

Still, Waller cautioned that, given the uncertainties surrounding the outlook for the economy, “I cannot say for sure whether” the Fed has done enough to conquer inflation.

Skanda Amarnath, executive director at Employ America, an advocacy group, and a former Fed economist, said the Fed will be particularly attentive to inflation data at the beginning of 2024, because prices spiked in the first couple of months of the year in 2022 and 2023.

“If we get through the (first quarter) of this upcoming calendar year and inflation has not reared its head in quite the same ugly way we saw the previous few ones, I think the Fed will have a lot more confidence,” Amarnath said, which could “also mean the Fed is interested in possibly lowering interest rates.”

Waller noted that recent data on hiring, consumer spending, and business activity suggested that economic growth was cooling from its torrid 4.9% annual pace in the July-September quarter. Slower spending and hiring, he said, should help further cool inflation.

Last month’s figures “are consistent with the kind of moderating demand and easing price pressure that will help move inflation back to 2%, and I will be looking to see that confirmed in upcoming data releases,” Waller said.

Also Tuesday, another member of the Fed’s board, Michelle Bowman, who has long taken a more hawkish stance on inflation, said there were still too many uncertainties surrounding inflation and the economy to be sure that the Fed is done hiking rates.

“My baseline economic outlook continues to expect that we will need to increase (the Fed’s key) rate further,” Bowman said in a speech in Salt Lake City to the Utah Banker’s Association. “We should keep in mind the historical lessons and risks associated with prematurely declaring victory in the fight against inflation, including the risk that inflation may settle at a level above our 2% target.”

Copyright 2023 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.

Access Teri’s one-stop Orlando FL home search website.

Teri Isner is the team leader of Orlando Avenue Top Team and has been a Realtor for over 24 years. Teri has distinguished herself as a leader in the Orlando FL real estate market. Teri assists buyers looking for Orlando FL real estate for sale and aggressively markets Orlando FL homes for sale.

You deserve professional real estate service! You obtain the best results with Teri Isner plus you benefit from her marketing skills, experience and ability to network with other REALTORS®. Your job gets done pleasantly and efficiently.  You are able to make important decisions easily with fast, accurate information from Teri. The Orlando Avenue Top Team handles the details and follow-up that are important to the success of your transaction.

Orlando State of the Market October 2023

November 16th, 2023 by tisner

New Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association data shows inventory spikes as interest rates reach new heights.

State of the Market

  • October’s interest rate was recorded at 7.8%, up from 7.3% in September. This is the highest interest rate in the Orlando area since April 2001.
  • Inventory for October was recorded at 7,813, up 15.6% from September when inventory was recorded at 6,758. This is the seventh month in a row inventory has risen and the largest monthly percentage increase in 2023 so far.
  • Overall sales fell 5.0% from September to October. There were 2,429 sales in October, down from 2,558 sales in September. This is the fifth month in a row that home sales have fallen.
  • The median home price for October was recorded at $377,000, up from $370,000 in September. This breaks a three-month streak of the median home price falling.
  • New listings fell 2.5% from September to October, with 3,456 new homes on the market in October, compared to 3,545 in September.
  • Homes spent an average of 44 days on the market (DOM) in October, up from 41 days in September. This is 15.8% higher than October 2022 when homes spent an average of 38 days on the market.
  • “Sales were down and inventory was up in October as interest rates reached their highest level in more than 22 years,” said Lisa Hill, Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association President. “Even as rates climb, demand is keeping home prices high, creating challenges for buyers this fall. Early reports from November show rates falling, so we will have to wait and see if this offers buyers some reprieve.”

Market Snapshot

  • October 2022 when interest rates were 7.0%.
  • Pending sales fell 12.7%, with 3,322 in September and 2,900 in October.
  • 25 distressed homes (bank-owned properties and short sales) accounted for 1.0% of all home sales in October. That represents a 56.3% increase from September, when 16 distressed homes sold.

Inventory

  • Orlando area inventory increased 15.6% from September to October. Inventory in September was 6,758, and inventory in October was 7,813.
  • The supply of homes increased to 3.22 months in October, up 21.8% from 2.64 months in September. A balanced market is six months of supply.
  • The number of new listings decreased from September to October by 2.5% – from 3,545 homes to 3,456 homes.

ORRA’s full State of the Market Report for September can be found here.

his representation is based in whole or in part on data supplied by the Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association and the Stellar Multiple Listing Service. Neither the association nor StellarMLS guarantees or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the association or by StellarMLS does not reflect all real estate activity in the market. Due to late closings, an adjustment is necessary to record those closings posted after our reporting date.

ORRA REALTOR® sales represent sales involving Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association members, who are primarily – but not exclusively – located in Orange and Seminole counties. Note that statistics released each month September be revised in the future as new data is received.

Orlando MSA numbers reflect sales of homes located in Orange, Seminole, Osceola, and Lake counties by members of any REALTOR® association, not just members of ORRA.

Access Teri’s one-stop Orlando FL home search website.

Teri Isner is the team leader of Orlando Avenue Top Team and has been a Realtor for over 24 years. Teri has distinguished herself as a leader in the Orlando FL real estate market. Teri assists buyers looking for Orlando FL real estate for sale and aggressively markets Orlando FL homes for sale.

You deserve professional real estate service! You obtain the best results with Teri Isner plus you benefit from her marketing skills, experience and ability to network with other REALTORS®. Your job gets done pleasantly and efficiently.  You are able to make important decisions easily with fast, accurate information from Teri. The Orlando Avenue Top Team handles the details and follow-up that are important to the success of your transaction.

Orlando State of the Market September 2023

October 17th, 2023 by tisner

New Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association data shows rates reach highest level in over 20 years, contributing to market slowdown this fall.

State of the Market

  • September’s interest rate was recorded at 7.3%, up from 6.6% in August. This is the highest interest rate since March 2002.
  • Inventory for September was recorded at 6,758, up 10.5% from August when inventory was recorded at 6,115. This is the sixth month in a row inventory has risen.
  • Overall sales fell 8.4% from August to September. There were 2,558 sales in September, down from 2,792 sales in August. This is the fourth month in a row that home sales have fallen.
  • The median home price for September was recorded at $370,000, down from $375,000 in August. This is the third month in a row that median home price has fallen.
  • New listings fell 2.1% from August to September, with 3,545 new homes on the market in September, compared to 3,620 in August.
  • Homes spent an average of 41 days on the market (DOM) in September – the same as in August. This is 32.3% higher than September 2022 when homes spent an average of 31 days on the market.
  • “Rising rates in September contributed to continued rising inventory, falling sales and falling median home price,” said Lisa Hill, Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association President. “Home sales during the fall are typically slower than sales during the spring or summer, and this may be especially prevalent this season with rates reaching their highest level in over 20 years. High interest rates have been the No. 1 factor affecting buyers this year, and it’s evident this challenge will persist.”

Market Snapshot

  • Interest rates rose from 6.6% in August to 7.3% in September. This is 15.3% higher than September 2022 when interest rates were 6.3%.
  • Pending sales fell 8.9%, with 3,647 in August and 3,322 in September.
  • 16 distressed homes (bank-owned properties and short sales) accounted for 0.6% of all home sales in September. That represents a 23.8% decrease from August, when 21 distressed homes sold.

Inventory

  • Orlando area inventory increased 10.5% from August to September. Inventory in August was 6,115 and inventory in September was 6,758.
  • The supply of homes increased to 2.64 months in September, up 20.6% from 2.19 months in August. A balanced market is six months of supply.
  • The number of new listings decreased from August to September by 2.1% – from 3,620 homes to 3,545 homes.

ORRA’s full State of the Market Report for September can be found here.

This representation is based in whole or in part on data supplied by the Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association and the Stellar Multiple Listing Service. Neither the association nor StellarMLS guarantees or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the association or by StellarMLS does not reflect all real estate activity in the market. Due to late closings, an adjustment is necessary to record those closings posted after our reporting date.

ORRA REALTOR® sales represent sales involving Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association members, who are primarily – but not exclusively – located in Orange and Seminole counties. Note that statistics released each month August be revised in the future as new data is received.

Orlando MSA numbers reflect sales of homes located in Orange, Seminole, Osceola, and Lake counties by members of any REALTOR® association, not just members of ORRA.

Access Teri’s one-stop Orlando FL home search website.

Teri Isner is the team leader of Orlando Avenue Top Team and has been a Realtor for over 24 years. Teri has distinguished herself as a leader in the Orlando FL real estate market. Teri assists buyers looking for Orlando FL real estate for sale and aggressively markets Orlando FL homes for sale.

You deserve professional real estate service! You obtain the best results with Teri Isner plus you benefit from her marketing skills, experience and ability to network with other REALTORS®. Your job gets done pleasantly and efficiently.  You are able to make important decisions easily with fast, accurate information from Teri. The Orlando Avenue Top Team handles the details and follow-up that are important to the success of your transaction.

Orlando State of the Market August 2023

September 22nd, 2023 by tisner

New Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association data shows market continues to cool as fall season approaches


State of the Market

  • Inventory for August was recorded at 6,115, up 6.9% from July when inventory was recorded at 5,720.
  • New listings rose 6.1% from July to August, with 3,620 new homes on the market in August, compared to 3,413 in July.
  • The median home price for August was recorded at $375,000, down from $380,000 in July. This is the second month in a row that median home price has fallen.
  • Median home price in August 2023 was extremely close to August 2022, when it was recorded at $377,750.
  • Overall sales fell slightly – 2.1% – from July to August. There were 2,792 sales in August, down from 2,852 sales in July. Sales in August 2023 were also 16.0% lower than August 2022, when there were 3,324 sales.
  • Homes spent an average of 41 days on the market (DOM) in August, up from 39 days in July. This is 51.9% higher than August 2022 when homes spent an average of just 27 days on the market.
  • August’s interest rate was recorded at 6.6%, down from 6.8% in July. Interest rates in August 2022 were 5.3%.
  • In a July survey of ORRA members, 48% said they are seeing signs of the market cooling off.
  • “As we near the fall season, we typically see a slowdown in sales, and we are beginning to witness this in the Central Florida market,” said Lisa Hill, Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association President. “Fall can have its benefits for buyers. With our market cooling off, fall homebuyers will face less competition, find more inventory, and see median home price pull back a bit.”

Market Snapshot

  • Interest rates decreased from 6.8% in July to 6.6% in August. This is 24.5% higher than August 2022 when interest rates were 5.3%.
  • Pending sales fell 4.2%, with 3,808 in July and 3,647 in August.
  • 21 distressed homes (bank-owned properties and short sales) accounted for 0.8% of all home sales in August. That represents a 16.0% decrease from July, when 25 distressed homes sold.

Inventory

  • Orlando area inventory increased 6.9% from July to August. Inventory in July was 5,720 and inventory in August was 6,115.
  • The supply of homes increased to 2.19 months in August, up 9.2% from 2.01 months in July. A balanced market is six months of supply.
  • The number of new listings increased from July to August by 6.1% – from 3,413 homes to 3,620 homes.

ORRA’s full State of the Market Report for August can be found here.

Access Teri’s one-stop Orlando FL home search website.

Teri Isner is the team leader of Orlando Avenue Top Team and has been a Realtor for over 24 years. Teri has distinguished herself as a leader in the Orlando FL real estate market. Teri assists buyers looking for Orlando FL real estate for sale and aggressively markets Orlando FL homes for sale.

You deserve professional real estate service! You obtain the best results with Teri Isner plus you benefit from her marketing skills, experience and ability to network with other REALTORS®. Your job gets done pleasantly and efficiently.  You are able to make important decisions easily with fast, accurate information from Teri. The Orlando Avenue Top Team handles the details and follow-up that are important to the success of your transaction.

Fla.’s July Housing: Prices Up, Inventory Improves

August 25th, 2023 by tisner

Florida Realtors: Higher mortgage rates still a factor; single-family home median price at $415K, 2.8 months’ supply. Condo median price at $319K, 3.6 months’ supply.

ORLANDO, Fla. – In July, Florida’s housing market reported improving inventory levels (active listings) and statewide median sales prices consistent with values of a year ago, according to Florida Realtors®’ latest housing data.

“Buyers and sellers in Florida continue be challenged by higher mortgage rates, which have been fluctuating around 7%,” says 2023 Florida Realtors® President G. Mike McGraw, a broker-associate with RE/MAX Central Realty in Orlando. “In recent months, we’ve seen active listings start to increase and inventory levels improving, though we’re still below what would be considered a balanced market.

“However, more active listings would mean a wider selection of homes and more options for buyers, which could help moderate the pace of rising prices and ease affordability issues.”

Last month, closed sales of existing single-family homes statewide totaled 22,198, down 6.4% year-over-year, while existing condo-townhouse sales totaled 8,463, down 9.4% from July 2022, according to data from Florida Realtors Research Department in partnership with local Realtor boards/associations. Closed sales may occur from 30- to 90-plus days after sales contracts are written.

“High mortgage rates this summer have continued to slow the annual rate of home price growth,” says Florida Realtors Chief Economist Dr. Brad O’Connor. “The median sale price for single-family homes in July was $415,000, a 0.7% percent increase over last July’s median of about $412,000. This price growth is slightly greater than what we’ve seen in recent months, but not by much. The median sale price for condos and townhouses, meanwhile, was up 4.6% to $319,000, which was its largest year-over-year gain since April.”

The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less.

Looking at the overall housing data, “Interest rates were on the rise throughout 2022, and as they increased, housing market activity declined,” says O’Connor. “So, the deeper we get into 2023, the more favorable the numbers will look compared to 12 months ago. The real story so far this year is the housing market hasn’t been in any big hurry to improve.”

On the supply side of the market, single-family existing homes were at a 2.8-months’ supply in July while condo-townhouse properties were at a 3.6-months’ supply.

Source: www.floridarealtors.orgBy Marla Martin

Orlando State of the Market June 2023

July 20th, 2023 by tisner


State of the Market

  • The median home price for June was recorded at $385,000, up from $378,000 in May. Median home prices have increased every month this year.
  • Median home price in June 2023 was close to June 2022, when it was recorded at $387,000.
  • New listings rose 7.1% from May to June, with 3,703 new homes on the market in June, compared to 3,459 in May.
  • Homes spent an average of 41 days on the market (DOM) in June, down from 45 days in May. This is 105.0% higher than June 2022 when homes spent an average of 20 days on the market.
  • Overall sales fell 0.8% from May to June. There were 3,124 sales in June, down from 3,150 sales in May.
  • June’s interest rate was recorded at 6.7%, up slightly from 6.6% in May.
  • Inventory for June was recorded at 5,450, up 5.8% from May when inventory was recorded at 5,149.
  • Inventory in June 2023 (5,450) was 0.2% higher compared to June 2022, when it was recorded at 5,437 homes.
  • “Now that we’re officially halfway through the year, Orlando’s housing market remains strong,” said Lisa Hill, Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association President. “June’s housing data is a strong indication of what the rest of the year will look like – we can expect to continue to see more inventory and great prices for homes, which is good news for buyers and sellers.”

Market Snapshot

  • Interest rates increased from 6.6% in May to 6.7% in June. This is 20.6% higher than June 2022 when interest rates were 5.5%.
  • Pending sales fell, with 4,304 in May and 3,964 in June.
  • 28 distressed homes (bank-owned properties and short sales) accounted for 0.9% of all home sales in June. That represents a 33.3% increase from May, when 21 distressed homes sold.

Inventory

  • Orlando area inventory increased 5.8% from May to June. Inventory in May 2023 was 5,149 and inventory in June was 5,450.
  • The supply of homes increased to 1.74 months in June, up 6.7% from 1.63 months in May. A balanced market is six months of supply.
  • The number of new listings increased from May to June by 7.1% – from 3,459 homes to 3,703 homes.

ORRA’s full State of the Market Report for June can be found here.

Access Teri’s one-stop Orlando FL home search website.Teri Isner is the team leader of Orlando Avenue Top Team and has been a Realtor for over 24 years. Teri has distinguished herself as a leader in the Orlando FL real estate market. Teri assists buyers looking for Orlando FL real estate for sale and aggressively markets Orlando FL homes for sale.

You deserve professional real estate service! You obtain the best results with Teri Isner plus you benefit from her marketing skills, experience and ability to network with other REALTORS®. Your job gets done pleasantly and efficiently.  You are able to make important decisions easily with fast, accurate information from Teri. The Orlando Avenue Top Team handles the details and follow-up that are important to the success of your transaction.

By: www.orlandorealtors.org

Orlando State of the Market May 2023

June 16th, 2023 by tisner


State of the Market

– “As we approach midway through the year, prices continue to rise and homes spend fewer days on the market,” said Lisa Hill,
Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association President. “The market cooled near the end of last year, but we have been on an upward
trajectory ever since. Many families prefer to save their moves for summer when the kids are out of school, so we will likely be in
for a busy selling season these next few months.”

– The median home price for May was recorded at $378,000, up from $370,000 in April. This is a $28,000 increase since January.
Median home prices have increased every month this year. Median home price in May 2023 was roughly the same as May 2022,
when it was recorded at $379,950.

– Overall sales rose 13.9% from April to May. There were 3,150 sales in May, up from 2,766 sales in April. Overall sales in May 2023
were 20.2% lower than May 2022 when there were 3,946 sales.

– Inventory stayed level – there were 5,148 homes in April and 5,149 homes in May. Inventory in May 2023 was 33.7% higher
compared to May 2022, when it was recorded at only 3,851 homes.

– Interest rates increased from 6.4% in April to 6.6% in May. This is 25.4% higher than May 2022 when interest rates were 5.3%.
21 distressed homes (bank-owned properties and short sales) accounted for 0.7% of all home sales in May. That represents a 16.7%
increase from April, when 18 distressed homes sold.

– New listings rose 7.4% from April to May, with 3,459 new homes on the market in May, compared to 3,220 in April.

ORRA’s full State of the Market Report for March can be found here.

Access Teri’s one-stop Orlando FL home search website.Teri Isner is the team leader of Orlando Avenue Top Team and has been a Realtor for over 24 years. Teri has distinguished herself as a leader in the Orlando FL real estate market. Teri assists buyers looking for Orlando FL real estate for sale and aggressively markets Orlando FL homes for sale.

You deserve professional real estate service! You obtain the best results with Teri Isner plus you benefit from her marketing skills, experience and ability to network with other REALTORS®. Your job gets done pleasantly and efficiently.  You are able to make important decisions easily with fast, accurate information from Teri. The Orlando Avenue Top Team handles the details and follow-up that are important to the success of your transaction.

By: www.orlandorealtors.org

RE Development: 3 Fla. Cities in U.S. Top 20

June 15th, 2023 by tisner

Census data shows the last decade’s most active development is in the Sun Belt. Texas holds top spots with Jacksonville (7), Orlando (11) and Tampa (15) close behind.

ORLANDO, Fla. – A study of real estate development based on U.S. Census Bureau data covering the last decade finds Texas cities in the top five spots, but three Florida cities are close behind: Jacksonville ranks at No. 7, Orlando at No. 11 and Tampa No. 15.

The analysis from StorageCafe, Yardi Matrix and Commercial Edge found that 15 of the top 20 cities with the highest volumes of real estate construction from 2013 to 2022 were Southern or Southwestern urban hotspots. Texas, however, is “now in a league of its own and boasts the top five best cities for real estate construction.”

U.S. map of 20 cities that are tops for real estate development

StorageCafe analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau, Yardi Matrix and Commercial Edge (2013-2022)

For the analysis, researchers say they considered building permits for single-family homes and multifamily units, and new deliveries of square footage in the industrial, office, retail and self-storage sectors – and the self-storage sector saw strong growth.

I’ve asked Doug Ressler, business intelligence manager at Yardi Matrix, a research firm and our sister division, to provide some insights on the state of the development market and self-storage in particular:

“In the face of the recent headwinds felt across the real estate sector, industrial, multifamily and self-storage remained the most preferred commercial assets,” says Doug Ressler, business intelligence manager at Yardi Matrix. “The self-storage sector is currently performing well with new supply at healthy levels and demand stabilizing after the pandemic-induced spike. Street rates are still down year-over-year but the drop is moderating as the prime moving season kicks in. In fact, the average rent for a standard unit is slightly up from the previous month and now sits at $127 per month.”

5 most active Florida cities, 2013-2022

1. Jacksonville

  • Single-family permits: 37,000
  • Industrial space: 18.7 million square feet
  • Self-storage space: 2.6 million square feet

2. Orlando

  • Retail space: 8.8 million square feet
  • Industrial space: 22 million square feet
  • Self-storage space: square feet

3. Tampa

  • Retail space: 3.2 million square feet
  • Self-storage space: 2.1 million square feet
  • Multifamily permits: 21,500

4. Miami

  • Self-storage space: 4.7 million square feet
  • Retail space: 9.1 million square feet
  • Multifamily permits: 45,800

5. St. Petersburg

  • Multifamily permits: 9,700
  • Self-storage space: 975,000 square feet
  • Retail space: 1M square feet

For more information on how the individual commercial sectors, the multifamily sector and residential construction expanded over the past decade nationally and by city – including the three Florida cities in the top 20 – visit StorageCafe’s website.

Access Teri’s one-stop Orlando FL home search website.

Teri Isner is the team leader of Orlando Avenue Top Team and has been a Realtor for over 24 years. Teri has distinguished herself as a leader in the Orlando FL real estate market. Teri assists buyers looking for Orlando FL real estate for sale and aggressively markets Orlando FL homes for sale.

You deserve professional real estate service! You obtain the best results with Teri Isner plus you benefit from her marketing skills, experience and ability to network with other REALTORS®. Your job gets done pleasantly and efficiently.  You are able to make important decisions easily with fast, accurate information from Teri. The Orlando Avenue Top Team handles the details and follow-up that are important to the success of your transaction.

Source: © 2023 Florida Realtors®
By: Kerry Smith

Are Floridians More Optimistic than Rest of U.S.?

March 30th, 2023 by tisner


While Americans’ attitudes declined a bit in Jan., a monthly UF study of Floridians found a 1.4-point increase overall with an uptick in expectations for the future.

GAINESVILLE, Fla. – In January, consumer sentiment among Floridians increased 1.4 points to 65.4 from December’s revised figure of 64. At a national level, sentiment increased over five points. Yesterday, the Conference Board noted a slight dip in overall Americans’ optimism.

“The increase in consumer sentiment in January stems from improvements in Floridians’ expectations about the future, particularly their expectations of a year from now,” says Hector Sandoval, director of the Economic Analysis Program at UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

Sandoval calls those views “consistent with a falling inflation outlook. After peaking at 9.1% in June, inflation has steadily declined to 6.5% in December. It is expected that price pressures will continue to ease over the next few months, preventing households from experiencing further hardships.

Among the five components that make up the index, four increased and one decreased.

Current conditions: Floridians’ opinions about current economic conditions in January were mixed. Views of personal financial situations now compared with a year ago increased 1.1 point from 54.6 to 55.7. On the other hand, opinions as to whether it’s a good time to buy a major household item like an appliance decreased three-tenths of a point from 55.2 to 54.9.

Future conditions: Outlooks about expected future economic conditions were positive. Prospects for individual’s personal finances a year from now increased 3.3 points from 76.5 to 79.8. Similarly, expectations about U.S. economic conditions over the next year increased 1.6 points from 62.9 to 64.5.

This long-range optimism even extended five years into the future. Views of U.S. economic conditions over the next five years increased 1.1 points from 70.9 to 72.

Meanwhile, the Florida labor market continued to strengthen in December, with more jobs being added. According to the latest Florida jobs report, the unemployment rate ticked down by 0.1 percentage point in December, reaching 2.5% – only one-tenth of a percentage point above the lowest rate on record.

In line with this, the number of Florida workers seeking unemployment benefits is hovering around pre-pandemic levels, indicating a tightening labor market.

“Prices have been declining over the second half of 2022 as the Fed swiftly increased interest rates,” says Sandoval. “Despite this, the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 2.9% in the last quarter of 2022.”

Inflation, however, remains well above the Federal Reserve target of 2%.” While the Fed will likely raise rates this week, it’s not expected to be a large increase similar to last year.

Still, “continued increases in interest rates will ultimately slow down the economy and trigger a recession,” adds Sandoval.

Sandoval remains positive, though, “Looking ahead, with the assumption the labor market remains robust, we expect consumer sentiment to improve slowly as inflation pressures continue to ease.”

The index used by UF researchers is benchmarked to 1966, which means a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year. The lowest index possible is a 2, the highest is 150.

© 2023 Florida Realtors® Kerry Smith

Access Teri’s one-stop Orlando FL home search website.

Teri Isner is the team leader of Orlando Avenue Top Team and has been a Realtor for over 24 years. Teri has distinguished herself as a leader in the Orlando FL real estate market. Teri assists buyers looking for Orlando FL real estate for sale and aggressively markets Orlando FL homes for sale.

You deserve professional real estate service! You obtain the best results with Teri Isner plus you benefit from her marketing skills, experience and ability to network with other REALTORS®. Your job gets done pleasantly and efficiently.  You are able to make important decisions easily with fast, accurate information from Teri. The Orlando Avenue Top Team handles the details and follow-up that are important to the success of your transaction.

Real Estate Trends: What’s the 2023 Fla. Outlook?

January 26th, 2023 by tisner

ORLANDO, Fla. – What should consumers, Realtors® and policymakers expect when it comes to Florida real estate over the next year? After the unexpectedly strong years of 2020 and 2021 despite an ongoing pandemic, Florida’s housing sector in 2022 was affected by rapidly rising inflation and higher mortgage interest rates, Florida Realtors® Chief Economist Dr. Brad O’Connor told nearly 500 Realtors during the recent 2023 Florida Real Estate Trends summit.

“Now, we expect the state’s residential real estate market to return to a more typical pace,” he said. “I believe 2023 will look more like the ‘traditional’ housing market years of 2018-2019 in Florida as supply and demand become more balanced.”

The event was part of this year’s Florida Realtors®’ Mid-Winter Business Meetings at the Renaissance SeaWorld Orlando. In addition to O’Connor, the summit featured John Leer, chief economist of Morning Consult, which uses high-frequency survey data to capture insights into consumer attitudes and concerns. Leer leads global economic research and oversees the firm’s economic data collection, validation and analysis. He is an authority on the effects of consumer preference, expectations and experiences on purchasing patterns, prices and employment.

It also included a panel of Realtors who use Florida Realtors’ SunStats resource regularly, sharing how it helps them in their business. Panelists were Peter West, broker/managing partner, Bishop West Real Estate; Kara Wisely, broker associate, Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Florida Realty; and John J. Adams, president, Adams, Cameron and Co., Realtors. Jennifer Warner, Florida Realtors economist and director of economic development, served as the moderator.

Dr. Brad O’Connor, Florida Realtors chief economist

One major question currently on the minds of real estate professionals, homebuyers, home sellers and others: Is a price correction on the way?

“Well, prices are determined by both demand and supply,” O’Connor said. “Falling demand is only one ingredient needed for a large correction; we also need a flood of supply – in the last housing cycle, this came from overbuilding and foreclosures. And it’s unlikely that we’re going to see a flood of newly built homes on the market for several reasons. First, fewer home builders currently exist than in years past; builders are more conservative when it comes to taking on new builds; and home builds are taking longer to complete. Supply is also being affected by homeowners who don’t want to list their house and buy a different one because they’re likely to have to pay more on the next home due to higher mortgage interest rates.

“So it’s true some owners are feeling ‘locked-in’ to their current home and current mortgage rate, but it’s not all homeowners. We are seeing gains in inventory (active listings) and closed sales are continuing. And we are going to see some relaxing or easing in prices, but we’re not going to see a great drop unless or until we see more supply available.

According to O’Connor, inflation will continue to be a factor in 2023, though recent economic news shows the Federal Reserve’s action to fight inflation appears to be having a positive effect. Buyer demand in Florida in the coming months will continue to be challenged by insurance costs, mortgage rates – especially if rates start rising again to 7% or higher – and ongoing economic uncertainty that erodes consumer confidence.

“Mortgage rates will come down, but it’s all dependent on different factors,” he said. “All of the current forecasts on existing home sales in 2023 rely on where the 30-year mortgage rate is going to be, and that’s in flux.

Recent 2023 forecasts for U.S. existing home sales compared year-over-year to 2022 include:

National Association of Realtors® (12/13/22): Existing home sales fall 7.0% Y/Y in 2023

Fannie Mae (12/12/22): Existing home sales fall 21.1% Y/Y in 2023

Mortgage Bankers Association (12/19/22): Existing home sales fall 13.7% Y/Y in 2023

Redfin (12/6/22): Existing home sales fall 16.0% Y/Y in 2023

Realtor.com (11/30/22): Existing home sales fall 14.1% Y/Y in 2023

National Association of Home Builders (1/4/23): Existing home sales fall 15.7% Y/Y in 2023

O’Connor said, “In the first half of this year, I feel confident that we’re going to see home prices flatten out on average, and I think sales will kind of hug below the line of 2018 (closed existing home sales). I expect closed sales to hover a bit below the more usual pace of Florida home sales, such as what we saw in 2018. However, because home prices are much higher now than in 2018, we are still going to see a higher dollar volume of closed existing home sales, just not at the level of last year or in 2021 with dollar volume.”

Dr. John Leer, Morning Consult chief economist

How consumers are affected by the economy, inflation and other factors – or how they feel about what’s going on in the world around them – influences consumer confidence and factors into their buying decisions or saving habits, according to Dr. John Leer, chief economist for Morning Consult.

“In 2023, consumer confidence is starting to rise across most of the U.S. but remains far off from where it was a year ago,” he said. “It’s going to take a prolonged period of real wage growth and fairly stable policy outcomes for consumers to feel more comfortable and confident about the economy and their future. In December, consumers reported rising credit balances at the highest rates since tracking began. Research shows more consumers are finding it difficult to make ends meet at the end of the month, and the share of adults able to save each month continues to shrink.”

Leer pointed out this is a sign that consumers have been pushed to the brink and are having to pull back on spending as higher expenses erode their savings and sense of financial stability.

“While we’re seeing in the news that inflation is starting to cool, inflation is still impacting consumers,” he said. “They still feel and see that inflation is costing them more. Consumers are under financial stress and they’re trying to downsize their spending. Over the last two months, what we’re seeing is the outlook for the U.S. economy has really deteriorated, particularly among consumer fronts. Consumers have exhausted their sources of spending. We expect to see consumers continue to draw back from spending as small business and other sectors reduce hiring, expenditures and otherwise also contract.”

However, Leer also noted that housing and homeownership remain a top priority for many consumers. “Housing prices are beginning to flatten but continue to resist declines as buyer interest perks up,” he said. “Buyers are still waiting in the wings, interested in purchasing a home as soon as they’re able to do so financially. We continue to see that homeownership remains a strong goal for consumers, particularly for young adults looking to start a family and who feel secure in their jobs and ready for that next transition.”

Access Teri’s one-stop Orlando FL home search website.

Teri Isner is the team leader of Orlando Avenue Top Team and has been a Realtor for over 24 years. Teri has distinguished herself as a leader in the Orlando FL real estate market. Teri assists buyers looking for Orlando FL real estate for sale and aggressively markets Orlando FL homes for sale.

You deserve professional real estate service! You obtain the best results with Teri Isner plus you benefit from her marketing skills, experience and ability to network with other REALTORS®. Your job gets done pleasantly and efficiently.  You are able to make important decisions easily with fast, accurate information from Teri. The Orlando Avenue Top Team handles the details and follow-up that are important to the success of your transaction.

By and photo credit: www.floridarealtors.org

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