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Real Estate Trends: What’s the 2023 Fla. Outlook?

January 26th, 2023 by tisner

ORLANDO, Fla. – What should consumers, Realtors® and policymakers expect when it comes to Florida real estate over the next year? After the unexpectedly strong years of 2020 and 2021 despite an ongoing pandemic, Florida’s housing sector in 2022 was affected by rapidly rising inflation and higher mortgage interest rates, Florida Realtors® Chief Economist Dr. Brad O’Connor told nearly 500 Realtors during the recent 2023 Florida Real Estate Trends summit.

“Now, we expect the state’s residential real estate market to return to a more typical pace,” he said. “I believe 2023 will look more like the ‘traditional’ housing market years of 2018-2019 in Florida as supply and demand become more balanced.”

The event was part of this year’s Florida Realtors®’ Mid-Winter Business Meetings at the Renaissance SeaWorld Orlando. In addition to O’Connor, the summit featured John Leer, chief economist of Morning Consult, which uses high-frequency survey data to capture insights into consumer attitudes and concerns. Leer leads global economic research and oversees the firm’s economic data collection, validation and analysis. He is an authority on the effects of consumer preference, expectations and experiences on purchasing patterns, prices and employment.

It also included a panel of Realtors who use Florida Realtors’ SunStats resource regularly, sharing how it helps them in their business. Panelists were Peter West, broker/managing partner, Bishop West Real Estate; Kara Wisely, broker associate, Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Florida Realty; and John J. Adams, president, Adams, Cameron and Co., Realtors. Jennifer Warner, Florida Realtors economist and director of economic development, served as the moderator.

Dr. Brad O’Connor, Florida Realtors chief economist

One major question currently on the minds of real estate professionals, homebuyers, home sellers and others: Is a price correction on the way?

“Well, prices are determined by both demand and supply,” O’Connor said. “Falling demand is only one ingredient needed for a large correction; we also need a flood of supply – in the last housing cycle, this came from overbuilding and foreclosures. And it’s unlikely that we’re going to see a flood of newly built homes on the market for several reasons. First, fewer home builders currently exist than in years past; builders are more conservative when it comes to taking on new builds; and home builds are taking longer to complete. Supply is also being affected by homeowners who don’t want to list their house and buy a different one because they’re likely to have to pay more on the next home due to higher mortgage interest rates.

“So it’s true some owners are feeling ‘locked-in’ to their current home and current mortgage rate, but it’s not all homeowners. We are seeing gains in inventory (active listings) and closed sales are continuing. And we are going to see some relaxing or easing in prices, but we’re not going to see a great drop unless or until we see more supply available.

According to O’Connor, inflation will continue to be a factor in 2023, though recent economic news shows the Federal Reserve’s action to fight inflation appears to be having a positive effect. Buyer demand in Florida in the coming months will continue to be challenged by insurance costs, mortgage rates – especially if rates start rising again to 7% or higher – and ongoing economic uncertainty that erodes consumer confidence.

“Mortgage rates will come down, but it’s all dependent on different factors,” he said. “All of the current forecasts on existing home sales in 2023 rely on where the 30-year mortgage rate is going to be, and that’s in flux.

Recent 2023 forecasts for U.S. existing home sales compared year-over-year to 2022 include:

National Association of Realtors® (12/13/22): Existing home sales fall 7.0% Y/Y in 2023

Fannie Mae (12/12/22): Existing home sales fall 21.1% Y/Y in 2023

Mortgage Bankers Association (12/19/22): Existing home sales fall 13.7% Y/Y in 2023

Redfin (12/6/22): Existing home sales fall 16.0% Y/Y in 2023

Realtor.com (11/30/22): Existing home sales fall 14.1% Y/Y in 2023

National Association of Home Builders (1/4/23): Existing home sales fall 15.7% Y/Y in 2023

O’Connor said, “In the first half of this year, I feel confident that we’re going to see home prices flatten out on average, and I think sales will kind of hug below the line of 2018 (closed existing home sales). I expect closed sales to hover a bit below the more usual pace of Florida home sales, such as what we saw in 2018. However, because home prices are much higher now than in 2018, we are still going to see a higher dollar volume of closed existing home sales, just not at the level of last year or in 2021 with dollar volume.”

Dr. John Leer, Morning Consult chief economist

How consumers are affected by the economy, inflation and other factors – or how they feel about what’s going on in the world around them – influences consumer confidence and factors into their buying decisions or saving habits, according to Dr. John Leer, chief economist for Morning Consult.

“In 2023, consumer confidence is starting to rise across most of the U.S. but remains far off from where it was a year ago,” he said. “It’s going to take a prolonged period of real wage growth and fairly stable policy outcomes for consumers to feel more comfortable and confident about the economy and their future. In December, consumers reported rising credit balances at the highest rates since tracking began. Research shows more consumers are finding it difficult to make ends meet at the end of the month, and the share of adults able to save each month continues to shrink.”

Leer pointed out this is a sign that consumers have been pushed to the brink and are having to pull back on spending as higher expenses erode their savings and sense of financial stability.

“While we’re seeing in the news that inflation is starting to cool, inflation is still impacting consumers,” he said. “They still feel and see that inflation is costing them more. Consumers are under financial stress and they’re trying to downsize their spending. Over the last two months, what we’re seeing is the outlook for the U.S. economy has really deteriorated, particularly among consumer fronts. Consumers have exhausted their sources of spending. We expect to see consumers continue to draw back from spending as small business and other sectors reduce hiring, expenditures and otherwise also contract.”

However, Leer also noted that housing and homeownership remain a top priority for many consumers. “Housing prices are beginning to flatten but continue to resist declines as buyer interest perks up,” he said. “Buyers are still waiting in the wings, interested in purchasing a home as soon as they’re able to do so financially. We continue to see that homeownership remains a strong goal for consumers, particularly for young adults looking to start a family and who feel secure in their jobs and ready for that next transition.”

Access Teri’s one-stop Orlando FL home search website.

Teri Isner is the team leader of Orlando Avenue Top Team and has been a Realtor for over 24 years. Teri has distinguished herself as a leader in the Orlando FL real estate market. Teri assists buyers looking for Orlando FL real estate for sale and aggressively markets Orlando FL homes for sale.

You deserve professional real estate service! You obtain the best results with Teri Isner plus you benefit from her marketing skills, experience and ability to network with other REALTORS®. Your job gets done pleasantly and efficiently.  You are able to make important decisions easily with fast, accurate information from Teri. The Orlando Avenue Top Team handles the details and follow-up that are important to the success of your transaction.

Get Orlando Daily News delivered to your inbox! Subscribe here!

By and photo credit: www.floridarealtors.org

Comps & Market Stats: What’s the difference?

January 12th, 2023 by tisner

Realtors know the ins and outs of comps — what they are, why they are important in every deal, and how they set the price and tone of the transaction overall.

But how do comps compare to market statistics, and more importantly, when should you look to one over another?

  • COMPS: This stat helps consumers who have already decided to buy something evaluate the different options on the market; helps a seller understand how their product stacks up compared to other products currently “on the shelf”
  • MARKET STATS: These help professionals gauge the health of the marketplace overall and to set expectations throughout the transaction for both buyers and sellers. Helps them communicate how competitive the marketplace is, how pricing is trending, whether the marketplace favors buyers or sellers, how quickly assets will move.

 

Comps: The value of features to individuals

To help understand, let’s consider a near-universal experience: buying a new vacuum cleaner.

When you go to Target to buy a vacuum, you stand in front of the options on the shelf and start comparing features and evaluating price, looking for the machine that will ultimately suit your specific needs. A person standing next to them is likely doing similar calculus but could come up with a different purchase based on their individual needs.

A pet owner may require certain tools and features that a person without pets doesn’t need. An older person may need a lighter machine, which could cost more, whereas a young college student doesn’t mind the cheaper, bulky model.

The one thing that unites every consumer in the market for a vacuum is that they are in the market for a vacuum. Value is placed on aspects of each machine based on their specific needs — what matters to one person may not to another. That’s why people are willing to pay different prices based on the different features that matter to them.

Comps are similar — they look at the individual features of houses that have recently sold very close to the area of the house in question. Features are compared: Does this house have a pool, a view, a yard, any major appliance upgrades, etc.? All of these features can add to the perceived value of the home — depending on if buyers are willing to pay more for them.

What matters to one buyer may not to another who would not be willing to pay extra for that particular feature. Someone with a more limited budget may be more willing to compromise on features just to purchase a home. Another person cannot live without certain things and are willing to pay more for what they want.

Either way, comps look at specific properties in a very small area and compare them to one another at a particular moment in time.

Comps are used to set the list price of a home and help sellers know how their property stacks up compared with other homes that recently sold. Comps matter most to people who have decided to actively participate in the market or have made the decision to buy or sell.

Market stats: Housing as a commodity

Market statistics elevate above the individual and consider the marketplace in general, looking at the health of the buyer and consumer and their ability to participate in the marketplace.

Continuing the vacuum-cleaner analogy, market data helps answer some of the following questions:

  • How many people are in the market for vacuums?
  • Do people have the money to purchase high-priced models or more entry-level models?
  • How many other models are there for people to chose from?
  • How do the features of my vacuum compare with the others on the market?
  • How quickly do vacuums sell after they arrive at the store?
  • Are other vacuums running a promotion that would incentivize a buyer to choose that model to get the discounted price?
  • Is the price of my vacuum in line with the others on the market?

Market statistics matter to anyone trying to understand the housing market in general, regardless of whether they are actively trying to buy or sell a home at the present time.

It also removes the individual features of the home from consideration and allows people to consider what all homes in a particular area (ZIP code, city, county, etc.) are doing. Market stats takes some of the emotion and specifics out of consideration and allow everyone to look at housing as a commodity, like oil and lumber.

Market stats help “set the table,” helping clients and professionals start the conversation from the same place.

Meaning, you can inform a client of how quickly homes are selling in their area and for what percent of the listing price. This can then help them understand how their transaction could go based on what is happening around them, beyond the handful of recent sales.

Market stats have a longer historical time horizon than comps, which typically do not go further back than six months and can help clients understand current market conditions compared to a year or so ago. This helps show the direction of the market, allowing for you to help manage expectations.

Ultimately, market statistics matter to professionals working with clients who rely on your expertise to tell them what is going on in the market overall.

Most clients do not know why median sale price trends matter to them and how understanding the temperature of the market can inform their experience going through a deal. But you know that understanding broader trends can help your clients make savvy decisions.

It may be a better time to buy a condo than a single-family home, for example, based on available inventory and pricing trends. It may be the right time to put a house on the market, given how low inventory currently is and has been trending for the last 12 months. It may be time to consider a different ZIP code over another — the ability to figure out options for your clients are practically endless.

Access Teri’s one-stop Orlando FL home search website.

Teri Isner is the team leader of Orlando Avenue Top Team and has been a Realtor for over 24 years. Teri has distinguished herself as a leader in the Orlando FL real estate market. Teri assists buyers looking for Orlando FL real estate for sale and aggressively markets Orlando FL homes for sale.

You deserve professional real estate service! You obtain the best results with Teri Isner plus you benefit from her marketing skills, experience and ability to network with other REALTORS®. Your job gets done pleasantly and efficiently.  You are able to make important decisions easily with fast, accurate information from Teri. The Orlando Avenue Top Team handles the details and follow-up that are important to the success of your transaction.

Get Orlando Daily News delivered to your inbox! Subscribe here!

Info from floridarealtors.org/

New Year Resolutions to Help You Purchase a Home

January 3rd, 2023 by tisner

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If you are like the rest of us then just a few days ago you made a list of New Year resolutions.   Many of us however do not stick to our plan when it comes to these promises we make ourselves.  If you plan to purchase a home sometime in this New Year you need to make a few related resolutions that will likely help you to attain your goal and dream of home ownership.  Below these resolutions are listed for you.

  1. Stop opening credit cards.  It is easy these days especially when you are shopping, to open one credit card after the other.  If buying a home is on your to do list this year however, you need to steer clear of opening new credit cards.
  2. Start paying your student loans on time every time. Many times when folks get student loans they tend to think they can pay them as they can but that can mess up your credit in no time.  If someone who has good credit and shows they are good at paying bills on time every time puts a bid in on a house you have your eye on and you put a bid on that house as well, it’s likely due to their history that they will win the bid and not you.
  3. Start paying your credit cards every month and on time. Even if you can’t afford to pay more than just the minimum payment you need to make sure you pay your credit card each and every month.   This type of diligence will serve you well when you go to make an offer on a house.
  4. Make sure you have a little bit of a cash reserve in your bank account at all times. It won’t look good to a mortgage lender when you ask for a loan if you have a zero balance in your bank account.
  5. Stick with the same job for as long as you can. Jumping from one job to another during a year is a sure fire way to lose your chance at the home of your dreams.  Lenders want to see stability and staying with the same job for a few years will show them that.

These New Year resolutions, if you do your best to keep them, will do their part towards helping you to purchase the home you have always dreamed about.

Access Teri’s one-stop Orlando FL home search website.

Teri Isner is the team leader of Orlando Avenue Top Team and has been a Realtor for over 24 years. Teri has distinguished herself as a leader in the Orlando FL real estate market. Teri assists buyers looking for Orlando FL real estate for sale and aggressively markets Orlando FL homes for sale.

You deserve professional real estate service! You obtain the best results with Teri Isner plus you benefit from her marketing skills, experience and ability to network with other REALTORS®. Your job gets done pleasantly and efficiently.  You are able to make important decisions easily with fast, accurate information from Teri. The Orlando Avenue Top Team handles the details and follow-up that are important to the success of your transaction.

Get Orlando Daily News delivered to your inbox! Subscribe here!

New Year’s Resolution: Invest in Real Estate

December 29th, 2022 by tisner


Stocks mainly pay when they appreciate and bonds via coupons, but real estate offers five profit centers, such as income, tax savings and principal paydown.

NEW YORK – If you invest in stocks or bonds, you may be more accustomed to one way of getting paid. For stocks, typically you’ll only get paid from stock price appreciation. For bonds, you’ll typically only get paid from the coupon payments (similar to net rental income of rental properties).

Since 2000, government bond yields have averaged 2-4%, while corporate bonds have averaged 4-6%. Bonds can also appreciate and depreciate in price if the investor sells before maturity.

In comparison, let’s take a look at the five profit centers in real estate investing and how they can impact your long-term investment strategy:

  1. Net rental income: This is the money you make after all expenses (mortgage, insurance, property management fees) are deducted from your monthly rental income.
  1. Tax savings: When you invest in real estate, you can take advantage of numerous tax deductions and write-offs. This can help you save a lot of money come tax time!
  1. Principal paydown: Every month, a portion of your mortgage payment goes towards paying down your balance, paid by your renter. This is a great way to build equity in your property and reduce your overall mortgage balance.
  1. Home price appreciation: Over time, the value of your property is likely to increase. This can provide you with a nice return on investment when you refinance or sell the property. Out of all of the profit centers, home price appreciation will have the greatest impact on return on investment over a full market cycle (10-20 years.)
  1. Inflation hedging: When inflation goes up, the prices of goods and services also increase. But since your mortgage payments remain the same, your purchasing power actually goes up! This makes real estate a great hedge against inflationary pressures.

© Copyright © 2022 Financial News & Daily Record, All rights reserved.

Access Teri’s one-stop Orlando FL home search website.

Teri Isner is the team leader of Orlando Avenue Top Team and has been a Realtor for over 24 years. Teri has distinguished herself as a leader in the Orlando FL real estate market. Teri assists buyers looking for Orlando FL real estate for sale and aggressively markets Orlando FL homes for sale.

You deserve professional real estate service! You obtain the best results with Teri Isner plus you benefit from her marketing skills, experience and ability to network with other REALTORS®. Your job gets done pleasantly and efficiently. You are able to make important decisions easily with fast, accurate information from Teri. The Orlando Avenue Top Team handles the details and follow-up that are important to the success of your transaction.

Get Orlando Daily News delivered to your inbox! Subscribe here!

Orlando State of the Market November 2022

December 16th, 2022 by tisner

State of the Market
“The housing market typically experiences a slowdown during the holiday season, and with high interest rates and economic uncertainty, this season’s slowdown may be especially significant,” said Tansey Soderstrom, Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association President. “While there is a lot of uncertainty with where the housing market is headed, buyers in the Orlando area have twice as many homes to consider than they did a year ago, and for sellers, home values and prices continue to remain steady.”

– The median home price for November was recorded at $360,000, down from $365,000 in October.

– Overall sales fell from October to November. There were 1,996 sales in November – down 26.5% from 2,716 sales in October. This is the lowest number of monthly home sales in nearly four years, dating back to January 2019. Overall sales in November 2022 were 45.5% lower than November 2021 when there were 3,664 sales.

– Orlando area inventory slightly increased by 1.0% from October to November from 7,128 homes to 7,197 homes. Inventory in November 2022 was 136.3% higher than in November 2021, when it was recorded at 3,046 homes.

– Interest rates decreased from 7.0% in October to 6.6% in November. This is 122.9% higher than November 2021 when interest rates were 3.0%.

– 9 distressed homes (bank-owned properties and short sales) accounted for 0.5% of all home sales in November. That represents a 55.0% decrease from October, when 20 distressed homes sold.

– New listings decreased by 14.6% from October to November, with 2,597 new homes on the market in November.

ORRA’s full State of the Market Report for September can be found here.

Access Teri’s one-stop Orlando FL home search website.Teri Isner is the team leader of Orlando Avenue Top Team and has been a Realtor for over 24 years. Teri has distinguished herself as a leader in the Orlando FL real estate market. Teri assists buyers looking for Orlando FL real estate for sale and aggressively markets Orlando FL homes for sale.

You deserve professional real estate service! You obtain the best results with Teri Isner plus you benefit from her marketing skills, experience and ability to network with other REALTORS®. Your job gets done pleasantly and efficiently.  You are able to make important decisions easily with fast, accurate information from Teri. The Orlando Avenue Top Team handles the details and follow-up that are important to the success of your transaction.

Get Orlando Daily News delivered to your inbox! Subscribe here!

By: www.orlandorealtors.org

Orlando State of the Market October 2022

November 17th, 2022 by tisner

Orlando Area Residential Real Estate Snapshot for October-2022

State of the Market

  • October’s interest rate was recorded at 7%, a 10% increase from September when the interest rate was 6.3%. The last time interest rates were this high was May 2002.
  • That 7% interest rate in October 2022 was 131% higher compared to October 2021 when the interest rate was recorded at just 3%.
  • Inventory rose 3.5% from September to October, from 6,884 to 7,128. This is the eighth straight month of inventory increases.
  • Inventory in October 2022 was 109.3% higher compared to October 2021, when it was recorded at 3,406 homes.
  • Homes spent an average of 38 days on the market in October, up from 31 days in September.
  • New listings decreased by 8.3% from September to October, with 3,041 new homes on the market in October.
  • Overall sales in October held steady from September. There were 2,716 sales in October – down one sale from September.
  • The median home price for October was recorded at $365,000, the same median home price recorded in September. This comes after three consecutive months of decreasing median home prices.
  • “We have the perfect storm of economic uncertainty in the U.S. accompanied by the highest interest rates Orlando has seen in more than 20 years,” said Tansey Soderstrom, Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association President. “Rapidly rising interest rates are having a huge impact on buying power. Home Prices and sales are flat from September to October, but rising rates are causing buyers to look at different price points in order to find a monthly mortgage payment that they are comfortable with.”

Market Snapshot

  • Interest rates increased as the average interest rate for October was recorded at 7%. This is 131% higher than October 2021 when interest rates were 3%.
  • Pending sales decreased by 24% from September to October for a total of 2,915 pending sales.
  • 20 distressed homes (bank-owned properties and short sales) accounted for 0.7% of all home sales in October. That represents a 66.7% increase from September, when 12 distressed homes sold.

Inventory

  • Orlando area inventory increased by 3.5% from September to October from 6,884 homes to 7,128 homes. Inventory in October 2022 was 109.3% higher than in October 2021, when it was recorded at 3,406 homes.
  • The supply of homes increased to 2.62 months in October. This is the third month since June 2020 with over two months of supply. A balanced market is six months of supply.
  • The number of new listings decreased from September to October by 8.3% down to 3,041 homes.

ORRA’s full State of the Market Report for September can be found here.

Access Teri’s one-stop Orlando FL home search website.Teri Isner is the team leader of Orlando Avenue Top Team and has been a Realtor for over 24 years. Teri has distinguished herself as a leader in the Orlando FL real estate market. Teri assists buyers looking for Orlando FL real estate for sale and aggressively markets Orlando FL homes for sale.

You deserve professional real estate service! You obtain the best results with Teri Isner plus you benefit from her marketing skills, experience and ability to network with other REALTORS®. Your job gets done pleasantly and efficiently.  You are able to make important decisions easily with fast, accurate information from Teri. The Orlando Avenue Top Team handles the details and follow-up that are important to the success of your transaction.

Get Orlando Daily News delivered to your inbox! Subscribe here!

By: www.orlandorealtors.org

Should Sellers List Now or Try to Wait It Out?

November 10th, 2022 by tisner


With home prices’ peak likely in the rear-view mirror, should sellers waiting to maximize profit jump in before it’s too late or wait and hope for another market reversal?

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. – As the housing market has cooled considerably, sellers are now wrestling with whether to sell their homes as soon as possible or hold off on selling.

Two years ago, it was an easier decision: Prices were at record highs, interest rates were lower than they had been in years, and buyers were so desperate to get into a home that they often bid up on homes and waived any appraisals.

But now, with more homes coming to the market and higher interest rates, buyers have started to reclaim more of the power, throwing sellers into unfamiliar territory.

With the market having shifted, is it more beneficial for them to sell now or wait for another boom?

“We ask them a simple question: ‘Do you think your house will be worth more in six months or a year than it is today, looking at the way the economy is and what interest rates are?’” said Alex Platt, a Realtor with the Platt Group at Compass in Boca Raton.

A seller’s perspective

For Dr. Imran Mirza, the decision to put his home up for sale was an easy one. He saw the bidding wars around him and properties flying off the market, and decided to capitalize on South Florida’s record boom before a possible correction took place.

He finally closed on his five-bedroom, five-and-a-half bathroom house in Boynton Beach about a week ago for $1.4 million, a down adjustment from the price he wanted – $1.895 million.

It was still a significant profit from the $900,000 he paid for the home in 2017. There are “these kind of profits where people live in their homes for 20 years, and they don’t see these kind of profits,” he noted.

For potential sellers looking to list now, there is some anxiety around deciding to sell: Have they missed the peak of the market in terms of prices? Will holding off on selling decrease their ability to get a high price even more?

“If they are moving out of town, or if it’s a second home or investment home that they want to pull money out of in the next five years, they should really sell now,” said Brian Pearl, principal agent with the Pearl Antonacci Group in Boca Raton, said. “We are really trying to paint the picture, are you OK waiting for another 5 to 10 years? If you are not, you should strongly consider selling now. If you need to move, sell now because the future is uncertain.”

For Mirza, he believes that if the time is right in a seller’s life and if someone wants to sell, they should do it now rather than wait out the shifting market.

“I figured we were at the peak for selling it and you don’t want to wait another seven years for this to happen again,” he said. “If they put their house out now, they have a good chance of selling it.”

What sellers need to weigh

Most experts agree: If a seller needs to move and wants to, then they should put the home up for sale. However, if a seller likes their home and is comfortable with their current payments, then they should stay in their house.

“While things have cooled off in South Florida, this is still a good time to sell,” said Jeff Tucker, senior economist with Zillow. “I don’t see a whole lot to gain from waiting, in part because the market is turning and the higher interest rates are having a snowball effect and cooling the market even more.”

Stephan Gehrig, 38, sold his home in Delray Beach in August for about $2.2 million, a little before prices started to adjust in South Florida.

“I saw how I was kinda at the end of the peak,” Gehrig said. “I was one of the last homes that sold in the neighborhood. I waited to list and I saw how previous homes, they had all sold within a week or two, and I got concerned [when] mine didn’t.”

Interest rates and inventory levels have been the main driving force of the housing market. Right now inventory levels, while they have risen compared to last year, are still low enough to keep prices high, a plus for sellers. Should more homes become available on the market, sellers would face more competition in selling their homes, Platt noted.

“It does appear that prices will come down a lot more because people are cutting their asking price,” said Eli Beracha, director of the Hollo School of Real Estate at Florida International University.

For Gehrig, his home sold in less than 30 days, and while he had to compromise on price a little bit as he witnessed the beginning signs of the incoming cooldown, Gehrig still feels that the price was enough to make it worth listing his home.

“I do wish I listed sooner,” Gehrig said.

Access Teri’s one-stop Orlando FL home search website.

Teri Isner is the team leader of Orlando Avenue Top Team and has been a Realtor for over 24 years. Teri has distinguished herself as a leader in the Orlando FL real estate market. Teri assists buyers looking for Orlando FL real estate for sale and aggressively markets Orlando FL homes for sale.

You deserve professional real estate service! You obtain the best results with Teri Isner plus you benefit from her marketing skills, experience and ability to network with other REALTORS®. Your job gets done pleasantly and efficiently.  You are able to make important decisions easily with fast, accurate information from Teri. The Orlando Avenue Top Team handles the details and follow-up that are important to the success of your transaction.

Get Orlando Daily News delivered to your inbox! Subscribe here!

© 2022 South Florida Sun-Sentinel. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

Orlando State of the Market September 2022

October 27th, 2022 by tisner

Orlando Area Residential Real Estate Snapshot for September-2022

New Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association data shows interest rates surge as home sales see biggest drop since January 2022

State of the Market

  • September’s interest rate was recorded at 6.3%, a 19.5% increase from August when the interest rate was 5.3%.
  • Overall sales in September dropped by 18.3% for a total of 2,717 sales compared to 3,324 sales in August.
  • Overall sales dropped 28.3% in September 2022 compared to September of last year.
  • The median home price for September 2022 was recorded at $365,000, a decrease of 3.4% compared to August’s median home price, $377,750. This is the third month in a row that the median home price has fallen.
  • Inventory rose 1.8% in September, from 6,762 to 6,884. This is the fifth straight month of inventory increases.
  • Homes spent an average of 31 days on the market in September, jumping 14.8% from August when the average was 27 days.
  • New listings decreased by 27.1% from August to September, with 3,318 new homes on the market in September.
  • “We are starting to feel the impacts of rising interest rates on the Orlando housing market as they have more than doubled over the past 12 months,” said Tansey Soderstrom, Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association President. “Rising interest rates are causing buyers to be more cautious, resulting in fewer Orlando home sales for the month of September. This cooling off in sales does have an upside for buyers, as they now have the luxury of being more patient when looking for a home.”

Market Snapshot

  • Interest rates increased as the average interest rate for September was recorded at 6.3%. This is 120.9% higher than September 2021 when interest rates were 2.9%.
  • Pending sales decreased by 8% from August to September for a total of 3,838 pending sales.
  • 12 distressed homes (bank-owned properties and short sales) accounted for 0.4% of all home sales in September. That represents a 100% increase from August, when 6 distressed homes sold.

Inventory

  • Orlando area inventory increased by 1.8% from August to September from 6,762 homes to 6,884 homes. Inventory in September 2022 was 87.9% higher than in September 2021, when it was recorded at 3,664 homes.
  • The supply of homes increased to 2.53 months in September. This is the second month since June 2020 with over two months of supply. A balanced market is six months of supply.
  • The number of new listings decreased in September from August by 27.1% down to 3,318 homes.

ORRA’s full State of the Market Report for September can be found here.

 

Access Teri’s one-stop Orlando FL home search website.Teri Isner is the team leader of Orlando Avenue Top Team and has been a Realtor for over 24 years. Teri has distinguished herself as a leader in the Orlando FL real estate market. Teri assists buyers looking for Orlando FL real estate for sale and aggressively markets Orlando FL homes for sale.

You deserve professional real estate service! You obtain the best results with Teri Isner plus you benefit from her marketing skills, experience and ability to network with other REALTORS®. Your job gets done pleasantly and efficiently.  You are able to make important decisions easily with fast, accurate information from Teri. The Orlando Avenue Top Team handles the details and follow-up that are important to the success of your transaction.

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By: www.orlandorealtors.org

Study Supports Earliest Interest Rate Hikes’ Timing

October 13th, 2022 by tisner


Study says: If the U.S. central bank had acted in early 2021, inflation would be down about a percentage point, but unemployment would be up 2 percentage points.

SAN FRANCISCO – Did the Federal Reserve make a historic blunder by not starting to raise interest rates early last year to fight inflation? And if so, how bad a mistake was it?

Not so bad, according to a paper by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco released Tuesday.

In the study, the San Francisco Fed argues if the U.S. central bank had acted in early 2021, inflation would be about a percentage point lower than it is today, but unemployment would be 2 percentage points higher.

“The main effect of earlier action by the (Fed’s policymaking committee) would have been slightly lower inflation at the cost of a substantially higher unemployment rate,” Regis Barnichon, a senior research adviser at the San Francisco Fed, wrote in the study.

The Fed, the paper says, likely would have raised rates just moderately because it would have been mindful of its “dual mandate” to achieve both price stability and maximum employment, especially as the nation was still emerging from the deep recession triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The San Francisco Fed, along with the 11 other regional Fed banks, operate independently but under the Federal Reserve’s supervision.

Fed officials have been widely criticized for calling the inflation surge “transitory” for much of last year, contending it was caused by pandemic-related supply chain bottlenecks that soon would ease. As a result, they kept the Fed’s key short-term interest rate near zero to spur economic activity and lower unemployment, which peaked at 14.7% in April 2020 and still stood at an elevated 6.2% in early 2021.

Inflation, meanwhile, was starting to creep up, with a core measure – which excludes food and energy items – rising from 1% in July 2020 to 2.3% in March 2021 before peaking at 6.2% this past February.

Since the Fed was assailed for being behind the curve, it’s now hiking rates too sharply to tame inflation, according to many economists, and likely tipping the economy into recession by next year. The Fed has hoisted the federal funds rate by 3 percentage points in 2022 after its third straight hike of three-quarters of a point in September. It expects the rate to close out 2022 at about 4.4%.

“They’re going from one extreme to the other,” says Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist of SMBC Nikko Securities.

The Fed hasn’t been the only target of criticism for the price surge. Republicans, among some top economists, also blame President Joe Biden’s $2trillion American Rescue Plan in early 2021 for distributing big checks to households, which goosed consumer spending and further strained supply chains.

Yet the San Francisco Fed paper addresses only the Fed’s role in the episode.

Barnichon argues that even if the Fed could foresee the current price spike, it likely would have raised its federal funds rate by about a percentage point immediately and another percentage point by early 2022, leaving the rate at about 2% early this year instead of near zero.

Separately, Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, agrees the appropriate federal funds rate early this year in light of the Fed’s dual mandate was 2%.

Under that scenario, Barnichon writes, core PCE inflation now would be about 4.8% – still well above the Fed’s 2% target – instead of the current 5.8% while unemployment would be about 5.5% rather than today’s 3.5%, which matches a 50-year low.

In other words, inflation would be less virulent at the cost of fewer people working and a weaker economy.

“The Fed was too slow to begin raising the federal funds rate” and that was partly responsible for raising consumers’ inflation expectations, which in turn led to sharper wage growth and inflation, Zandi says.

But, he adds, “it’s inappropriate to be overly critical of the Fed’s slow response, given the heightened uncertainties caused by the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It’s easy to be a Monday morning quarterback.”

If the Fed has acted sooner, the federal funds rate would be a half to three-quarters of a point lower by early next year than currently forecast, Zandi estimates.

LaVorgna disagrees, saying, “When the emergency is over, you take away emergency policy,” adding that’s what the Fed historically has done.

By doing so, he argues, the Fed may only have had to boost its key rate to about 2.5% by now and then paused. A more temperate rise in interest rates could have made for more stable financial markets and avoided perhaps about half of this year’s 24% plunge in the S&P 500 index, LaVorgna reckons.

He also disputes that unemployment would be notably higher than today’s 3.5% and believes inflation would be more than a percentage point lower, though he wouldn’t be more specific.

In his paper, Barnichon says that economic models during the current period are highly uncertain.

Access Teri’s one-stop Orlando FL home search website.

Teri Isner is the team leader of Orlando Avenue Top Team and has been a Realtor for over 24 years. Teri has distinguished herself as a leader in the Orlando FL real estate market. Teri assists buyers looking for Orlando FL real estate for sale and aggressively markets Orlando FL homes for sale.

You deserve professional real estate service! You obtain the best results with Teri Isner plus you benefit from her marketing skills, experience and ability to network with other REALTORS®. Your job gets done pleasantly and efficiently.  You are able to make important decisions easily with fast, accurate information from Teri. The Orlando Avenue Top Team handles the details and follow-up that are important to the success of your transaction.

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Source: www.floridarealtors.org, Paul Davidson

Mortgage Rates Continue Quick Rise Toward 7%

October 6th, 2022 by tisner


A 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.7% this week, another notable increase from last week’s 6.29%.

WASHINGTON (AP) – Average long-term U.S. mortgage rates rose this week for the sixth straight week, marking new highs not seen in 15 years, before a crash in the housing market triggered the Great Recession.

Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the average on the key 30-year rate climbed to 6.70% from 6.29% last week. By contrast, the rate stood at 3.01% a year ago.

The average rate on 15-year, fixed-rate mortgages, popular among those looking to refinance their homes, jumped to 5.96% from 5.44% last week.

Rapidly rising mortgage rates threaten to sideline even more homebuyers after more than doubling in 2022. Last year, prospective homebuyers were looking at rates well below 3%.

Freddie Mac noted that for a typical mortgage amount, a borrower who locked in at the higher end of the range of weekly rates over the past year would pay several hundred dollars more than a borrower who locked in at the lower end of the range.

Last week, the Federal Reserve bumped its benchmark borrowing rate by another three-quarters of a point in an effort to constrain the economy, its fifth increase this year and third consecutive 0.75 percentage point increase.

Perhaps nowhere else is the effect of the Fed’s action more apparent than the housing sector. Existing home sales have been in decline for seven straight months as the rising cost to borrow money puts homes out of reach for more people.

The government reported Thursday that the U.S. economy, battered by surging consumer prices and rising interest rates, shrank at a 0.6% annual rate from April through June. That was unchanged from the previous estimate for the second quarter.

Fed officials forecast that they will further raise their benchmark rate to roughly 4.4% by year’s end, a full point higher than they envisioned as recently as June. And they expect to raise the rate again next year, to about 4.6%. That would be the highest level since 2007.

By raising borrowing rates, the Fed makes it costlier to take out a mortgage and an auto or business loan. Consumers and businesses then presumably borrow and spend less, cooling the economy and slowing inflation.

Mortgage rates don’t necessarily mirror the Fed’s rate increases, but tend to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. That’s influenced by a variety of factors, including investors’ expectations for future inflation and global demand for U.S. Treasurys.

Source:https://www.floridarealtors.org/news-media/news-articles/2022/09/mortgage-rates-continue-quick-rise-toward-7

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Teri Isner is the team leader of Orlando Avenue Top Team and has been a Realtor for over 24 years. Teri has distinguished herself as a leader in the Orlando FL real estate market. Teri assists buyers looking for Orlando FL real estate for sale and aggressively markets Orlando FL homes for sale.

You deserve professional real estate service! You obtain the best results with Teri Isner plus you benefit from her marketing skills, experience and ability to network with other REALTORS®. Your job gets done pleasantly and efficiently.  You are able to make important decisions easily with fast, accurate information from Teri. The Orlando Avenue Top Team handles the details and follow-up that are important to the success of your transaction.

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