SAN FRANCISCO – Did the Federal Reserve make a historic blunder by not starting to raise interest rates early last year to fight inflation? And if so, how bad a mistake was it?

Not so bad, according to a paper by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco released Tuesday.

In the study, the San Francisco Fed argues if the U.S. central bank had acted in early 2021, inflation would be about a percentage point lower than it is today, but unemployment would be 2 percentage points higher.

“The main effect of earlier action by the (Fed’s policymaking committee) would have been slightly lower inflation at the cost of a substantially higher unemployment rate,” Regis Barnichon, a senior research adviser at the San Francisco Fed, wrote in the study.

The Fed, the paper says, likely would have raised rates just moderately because it would have been mindful of its “dual mandate” to achieve both price stability and maximum employment, especially as the nation was still emerging from the deep recession triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The San Francisco Fed, along with the 11 other regional Fed banks, operate independently but under the Federal Reserve’s supervision.

Fed officials have been widely criticized for calling the inflation surge “transitory” for much of last year, contending it was caused by pandemic-related supply chain bottlenecks that soon would ease. As a result, they kept the Fed’s key short-term interest rate near zero to spur economic activity and lower unemployment, which peaked at 14.7% in April 2020 and still stood at an elevated 6.2% in early 2021.

Inflation, meanwhile, was starting to creep up, with a core measure – which excludes food and energy items – rising from 1% in July 2020 to 2.3% in March 2021 before peaking at 6.2% this past February.

Since the Fed was assailed for being behind the curve, it’s now hiking rates too sharply to tame inflation, according to many economists, and likely tipping the economy into recession by next year. The Fed has hoisted the federal funds rate by 3 percentage points in 2022 after its third straight hike of three-quarters of a point in September. It expects the rate to close out 2022 at about 4.4%.

“They’re going from one extreme to the other,” says Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist of SMBC Nikko Securities.

The Fed hasn’t been the only target of criticism for the price surge. Republicans, among some top economists, also blame President Joe Biden’s $2trillion American Rescue Plan in early 2021 for distributing big checks to households, which goosed consumer spending and further strained supply chains.

Yet the San Francisco Fed paper addresses only the Fed’s role in the episode.

Barnichon argues that even if the Fed could foresee the current price spike, it likely would have raised its federal funds rate by about a percentage point immediately and another percentage point by early 2022, leaving the rate at about 2% early this year instead of near zero.

Separately, Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, agrees the appropriate federal funds rate early this year in light of the Fed’s dual mandate was 2%.

Under that scenario, Barnichon writes, core PCE inflation now would be about 4.8% – still well above the Fed’s 2% target – instead of the current 5.8% while unemployment would be about 5.5% rather than today’s 3.5%, which matches a 50-year low.

In other words, inflation would be less virulent at the cost of fewer people working and a weaker economy.

“The Fed was too slow to begin raising the federal funds rate” and that was partly responsible for raising consumers’ inflation expectations, which in turn led to sharper wage growth and inflation, Zandi says.

But, he adds, “it’s inappropriate to be overly critical of the Fed’s slow response, given the heightened uncertainties caused by the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It’s easy to be a Monday morning quarterback.”

If the Fed has acted sooner, the federal funds rate would be a half to three-quarters of a point lower by early next year than currently forecast, Zandi estimates.

LaVorgna disagrees, saying, “When the emergency is over, you take away emergency policy,” adding that’s what the Fed historically has done.

By doing so, he argues, the Fed may only have had to boost its key rate to about 2.5% by now and then paused. A more temperate rise in interest rates could have made for more stable financial markets and avoided perhaps about half of this year’s 24% plunge in the S&P 500 index, LaVorgna reckons.

He also disputes that unemployment would be notably higher than today’s 3.5% and believes inflation would be more than a percentage point lower, though he wouldn’t be more specific.

In his paper, Barnichon says that economic models during the current period are highly uncertain.

WASHINGTON (AP) – Average long-term U.S. mortgage rates rose this week for the sixth straight week, marking new highs not seen in 15 years, before a crash in the housing market triggered the Great Recession.

Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the average on the key 30-year rate climbed to 6.70% from 6.29% last week. By contrast, the rate stood at 3.01% a year ago.

The average rate on 15-year, fixed-rate mortgages, popular among those looking to refinance their homes, jumped to 5.96% from 5.44% last week.

Rapidly rising mortgage rates threaten to sideline even more homebuyers after more than doubling in 2022. Last year, prospective homebuyers were looking at rates well below 3%.

Freddie Mac noted that for a typical mortgage amount, a borrower who locked in at the higher end of the range of weekly rates over the past year would pay several hundred dollars more than a borrower who locked in at the lower end of the range.

Last week, the Federal Reserve bumped its benchmark borrowing rate by another three-quarters of a point in an effort to constrain the economy, its fifth increase this year and third consecutive 0.75 percentage point increase.

Perhaps nowhere else is the effect of the Fed’s action more apparent than the housing sector. Existing home sales have been in decline for seven straight months as the rising cost to borrow money puts homes out of reach for more people.

The government reported Thursday that the U.S. economy, battered by surging consumer prices and rising interest rates, shrank at a 0.6% annual rate from April through June. That was unchanged from the previous estimate for the second quarter.

Fed officials forecast that they will further raise their benchmark rate to roughly 4.4% by year’s end, a full point higher than they envisioned as recently as June. And they expect to raise the rate again next year, to about 4.6%. That would be the highest level since 2007.

By raising borrowing rates, the Fed makes it costlier to take out a mortgage and an auto or business loan. Consumers and businesses then presumably borrow and spend less, cooling the economy and slowing inflation.

Mortgage rates don’t necessarily mirror the Fed’s rate increases, but tend to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. That’s influenced by a variety of factors, including investors’ expectations for future inflation and global demand for U.S. Treasurys.

Source:https://www.floridarealtors.org/news-media/news-articles/2022/09/mortgage-rates-continue-quick-rise-toward-7

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WASHINGTON – It’s hard to underestimate the strength of Florida’s current home price increases in the second quarter of 2022 based on the Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index (FHFA HPI).

Index scores are based on mortgages – more than half of all in the U.S. – backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Of the 100 cities the index tracks, almost all Florida metros anchored the top 10 for year-over-year price increases, including two metros in the first and second spots. Only one Florida city, Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, didn’t make the top 10, and it was No. 11.

Overall U.S. house prices rose 17.7% year-to-year in the second quarter (4.0% quarter-to-quarter), but no Florida metro area had an increase less than 26%.

Top 100 rank of Florida metros and year-to-year price increase

1. North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton: 36.5%

2. Cape Coral-Fort Myers: 36.0%

4. Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater: 29.6%

5. Jacksonville: 29.0%

8. Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Sunrise: 26.9%

9. West Palm Beach-Boa Raton-Boynton Beach: 26.4%

10. Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford: 26.3%

11. Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall: 26.1%

Overall, however, the nation started seeing a slowdown in the rate of home-price increases.

“Housing prices grew quickly through most of the second quarter of 2022, but a deceleration has appeared in the June monthly data” says William Doerner, Ph.D., supervisory economist in FHFA’s Division of Research and Statistics. “The pace of growth has subsided recently, which is consistent with other recent housing data.”

Other 2Q findings

• U.S. housing market has experienced positive annual appreciation each quarter since the start of 2012.
• House prices rose in all 50 states and the District of Columbia year-to-year. The five areas with the highest annual appreciation were: Florida 29.8%, Arizona 25.5%, North Carolina 25.2%, Montana 24.9% and Tennessee 24.3%
• The areas with the lowest annual appreciation were the District of Columbia 5.2%, North Dakota 10.6%, Louisiana 10.8%, Minnesota 11.3% and Maryland 12.0%.
• House prices rose in all of the top 100 largest metropolitan areas over the last four quarters greatest in North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton (up 36.4%) and weakest in Washington-Arlington-Alexandria (up 9.1%).

© 2022 Florida Realtors®

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Teri Isner is the team leader of Orlando Avenue Top Team and has been a Realtor for over 24 years. Teri has distinguished herself as a leader in the Orlando FL real estate market. Teri assists buyers looking for Orlando FL real estate for sale and aggressively markets Orlando FL homes for sale.

You deserve professional real estate service! You obtain the best results with Teri Isner plus you benefit from her marketing skills, experience and ability to network with other REALTORS®. Your job gets done pleasantly and efficiently. You are able to make important decisions easily with fast, accurate information from Teri. The Orlando Avenue Top Team handles the details and follow-up that are important to the success of your transaction.

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Source: https://www.floridarealtors.org/news-media/news-articles/2022/08/fhfa-us-2q-prices-177-over-26-fla

NEW YORK – According to RentCafe, U.S. apartment construction is at a 50-year high, and new units debuting this year may offer some relief to tenants struggling to find a place to live.

The listing service estimates that 420,000 apartments should be delivered nationwide this year, with a construction explosion particularly notable in Southern cities like Dallas and Miami, where many Americans migrated during the pandemic.

In Florida, Miami, Orlando and Tampa made RentCafe’s top 20 list for new apartment units expected to debut this year. Half of the top 20 metropolitan areas ranked by construction should reach five-year highs in apartment deliveries this year.

Total new apartments debuting this year

1. New York: 28,153
2. Dallas: 23, 571
3. Miami: 19,125
4. Austin, Texas: 18, 288
5. Houston: 17,759
6. Phoenix: 15,988
7. Seattle: 15,341
8. Atlanta: 12, 838
9. Washington, D.C.: 12,176
10. Los Angeles: 11,536
11. Orlando: 11,388
12. Denver: 10,570
13. Nashville: 9,620
14. Raleigh, N.C.: 9,104
15. Charlotte: 8,732
16. Chicago: 8,573
17. Portland, Oregon: 8,476
18. San Francisco: 7,399
19. Minneapolis-St. Paul: 6,266
20. Tampa: 6,092

The pandemic exacerbated the nation’s housing inventory due to labor shortages and supply-chain disruptions, but RentCafe says apartment developers were generally able to ramp up the pace of construction in the past 18 months or so.

“The construction industry is finally returning to pre-pandemic levels of activity but is still being hampered by three familiar challenges: labor shortages, material costs and availability, and supply chain issues,” says Doug Ressler at Yardi Matrix.

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Teri Isner is the team leader of Orlando Avenue Top Team and has been a Realtor for over 24 years. Teri has distinguished herself as a leader in the Orlando FL real estate market. Teri assists buyers looking for Orlando FL real estate for sale and aggressively markets Orlando FL homes for sale.

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Source: https://www.floridarealtors.org/news-media/news-articles/2022/08/possible-rent-relief-coming-3-fla-cities?utm_campaign=8-24-22+Florida+Realtors+News&utm_source=iPost&utm_medium=email

NEW YORK – The hot housing market keeps many delinquent mortgage borrowers from being foreclosed, with their home values often exceeding their mortgage principal. As a result, strong home prices and tight inventory frequently give homeowners the option to sell before facing foreclosure. In addition, federal forbearance programs and other safeguards offer them some breathing room.

Although foreclosure starts have risen since the moratorium ended last July, the current number is still roughly half of what it was for the same period in 2019 and about a tenth of the peak during the 2007-09 recession, according to ATTOM Data Solutions.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index estimated that single-family home prices in major metros climbed around 33% in the two years ended February; price drivers included urban renters moving to buy more spacious suburban homes, long-term government stimulus, and a rapid economic rebound following COVID-19 lockdowns.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) forecasts a 9% annual decline in housing demand, although home prices are unlikely to fall due to limited housing supply caused by labor shortages and limitation of buildable lots.

ATTOM’s Rick Sharga noted the pandemic-fueled job losses disproportionately impacted younger, lower-wage non-homeowners, while the persistence of elevated inflation means lower-income mortgage borrowers with little financial buffers could face a higher risk of default.

Access Teri’s one-stop Orlando FL home search website.

Teri Isner is the team leader of Orlando Avenue Top Team and has been a Realtor for over 24 years. Teri has distinguished herself as a leader in the Orlando FL real estate market. Teri assists buyers looking for Orlando FL real estate for sale and aggressively markets Orlando FL homes for sale.

You deserve professional real estate service! You obtain the best results with Teri Isner plus you benefit from her marketing skills, experience and ability to network with other REALTORS®. Your job gets done pleasantly and efficiently.  You are able to make important decisions easily with fast, accurate information from Teri. The Orlando Avenue Top Team handles the details and follow-up that are important to the success of your transaction.

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Source: Wall Street Journal (06/19/22) Matsuda, Akiko
https://www.floridarealtors.org/